Plus ca change? (2)
June 28th, 2007Amidst the acres of newsprint and hours of TV footage of the events of the past two days, it is worth reflecting for a few moments about previous changes of Government where there has been no General Election over the last century or so. Some changes have been brought about by rebellion (Lloyd George 1916, Churchill 1940 and Major 1990), others have been brought about by unexpected events (Asquith 1908, Macmillan 1957, Home 1963) and some have been as a result of retirement (Baldwin 1935, Chamberlain 1937, Eden 1955 and Callaghan 1976).
Is this transition really like any others that we have seen? I think not. To describe it as a “retirement” succession, rather like that between Churchill and Eden, is to make a mistake, I think. Many think that Blair is at the height of his powers. Apart from an irregular heartbeat, there has been nothing physically wrong with him. No strokes, loss of memory or sheer old age here. His succession has not been an “unexpected event”, to say the least. His decision in 2004 to state that he would not seek to contest a fourth election turned him at a stroke into our very first (and probably last) term-limited Prime Minister.
Was it a “rebellion” succession? Yes and no. After Blair’s resignation announcement, there was no internecine warfare in order to choose the new leader. Yet the events of last September and the often conspiratorial behaviour of the Brownites over the past several years have cast something of a cloud over the blue skies of smooth transition. I may have missed it, but there has been nothing from Peter Mandelson in recent days, for example. Will there be rewards for Tom Watson and Sion Simon?
This transition will go down as the longest in our political history. It may also be remembered as the most avoidable. I keep thinking of that famous cartoon of Kaiser Wilhelm II seeing off his grandfather’s brilliant Chancellor, Bismarck, from a metaphorical ship of state. It was entitled “Dropping the Pilot”. Labour have either renewed themselves whilst in office, or they have dropped their pilot. We shall know much more by the end of the year.
